Global monitoring for biodiversity: Uncertainty, risk, and power analyses to support trend change detection.

Global targets aim to reverse biodiversity declines by 2050 but require knowledge of current trends and future projections under policy intervention. First, given uncertainty in measurement of current trends, we propose a risk framework, considering probability and magnitude of decline. While only 11 of 198 systems analyzed (taxonomic groups by country from the Living Planet Database) showed declining abundance with high certainty, 20% of systems had a 70% chance of strong declines. Society needs to decide acceptable risks of biodiversity loss. Second, we calculated statistical power to detect trend change using ~12,000 populations from 62 systems currently showing strong declines. Current trend uncertainty hinders our ability to assess improvements. Trend change is detectable with high certainty in only 14 systems, even if thousands of populations are sampled, and conservation action reduces net declines to zero immediately, on average. We provide potential solutions to improve monitoring of progress toward biodiversity targets.

Role of communication in successful outpatient attendance in a New Zealand hospital: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: There are significant implications for both patients and providers when patients do not attend outpatient specialist appointments. Nonattendance has an impact on the efficiency of health care, provider resources and patient health outcomes. AIMS: In this qualitative study we aimed to gather insights on how Dunedin Hospital notifies patients about their appointments, the implications for the hospital and for patients and how the system could be improved. METHODS: We interviewed 13 hospital staff members and nine patients who volunteered to participate because they had missed appointments as a result of communication problems. Interviews were transcribed and analysed thematically using NVivo software. RESULTS: Dunedin Hospital relies heavily on posted letters to inform people about their appointments, with some also receiving reminder texts closer to the time of the appointment. Frustration with the current system was a common theme among both patients and staff. Almost all patients had missed an appointment because of a letter not arriving. While most patients found that the text reminders were helpful, most said they were sent too late and did not allow enough time for arrangements to be made for their appointments. Almost all patients experienced treatment delays, which caused distress. Most patients believed a self-booking system would improve the ability to attend their appointments, and most of them wanted to be notified of appointments via email. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that a patient-oriented approach to communication should be implemented, and alternative methods of communication should be explored.

Unveiling the hidden economic toll of biological invasions in the European Union.

Background: Biological invasions threaten the functioning of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being by degrading ecosystem services and eliciting massive economic costs. The European Union has historically been a hub for cultural development and global trade, and thus, has extensive opportunities for the introduction and spread of alien species. While reported costs of biological invasions to some member states have been recently assessed, ongoing knowledge gaps in taxonomic and spatio-temporal data suggest that these costs were considerably underestimated. Results: We used the latest available cost data in InvaCost (v4.1)-the most comprehensive database on the costs of biological invasions-to assess the magnitude of this underestimation within the European Union via projections of current and future invasion costs. We used macroeconomic scaling and temporal modelling approaches to project available cost information over gaps in taxa, space, and time, thereby producing a more complete estimate for the European Union economy. We identified that only 259 out of 13,331 (~ 1%) known invasive alien species have reported costs in the European Union. Using a conservative subset of highly reliable, observed, country-level cost entries from 49 species (totalling US$4.7 billion; 2017 value), combined with the establishment data of alien species within European Union member states, we projected unreported cost data for all member states. Conclusions: Our corrected estimate of observed costs was potentially 501% higher (US$28.0 billion) than currently recorded. Using future projections of current estimates, we also identified a substantial increase in costs and costly species (US$148.2 billion) by 2040. We urge that cost reporting be improved to clarify the economic impacts of greatest concern, concomitant with coordinated international action to prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species in the European Union and globally. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-023-00750-3.

Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead.

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Behavioural adaptation to heat stress: shell lifting of the hermit crab Diogenes deflectomanus.

Behavioural responses to heat and desiccation stress in ectotherms are crucial for their survival in habitats where environmental temperatures are close to or even exceed their upper thermal limits. During low tide periods when pools in intertidal sediments heat up, a novel shell lifting behaviour (when hermit crabs crawl out of pools and lift up their shells) was observed in the hermit crab, Diogenes deflectomanus, on tropical sandy shores. On-shore measurements revealed that the hermit crabs left pools and lifted their shells predominantly when pool water exceeded 35.4 °C. Standing on emersed substrates above the pool water, the hermit crabs maintained their body temperatures at 26 - 29 °C, ∼ 10 °C lower than temperatures at which their physiological performances (as measured using heart rate) reached the maximum. This mismatch between preferred body temperatures and temperatures at maximal physiological performance was also observed under a laboratory controlled thermal gradient, where hermit crabs spent more time at 22 - 26 °C as compared to > 30 °C. These behaviours suggest a thermoregulatory function of the shell lifting behaviour, where the hermit crabs can avoid further increase in body temperatures when pools heat up during low tide periods. Such a behavioural decision allows the hermit crabs to be less prone to the strong temporal fluctuation in temperatures experienced during emersion periods on thermally dynamic tropical sandy shores.

Capacity of countries to reduce biological invasions.

The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-economic and environmental factors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet, a global analysis of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how five broad, country-specific socio-economic and environmental indices (Governance, Trade, Environmental Performance, Lifestyle and Education, Innovation) explain country-level (1) established alien species (EAS) richness of eight taxonomic groups, and (2) proactive or reactive capacity to prevent and manage biological invasions and their impacts. These indices underpin many aspects of the invasion process, including the introduction, establishment, spread and management of alien species. They are also general enough to enable a global comparison across countries, and are therefore essential for defining future scenarios for biological invasions. Models including Trade, Governance, Lifestyle and Education, or a combination of these, best explained EAS richness across taxonomic groups and national proactive or reactive capacity. Historical (1996 or averaged over 1996-2015) levels of Governance and Trade better explained both EAS richness and the capacity of countries to manage invasions than more recent (2015) levels, revealing a historical legacy with important implications for the future of biological invasions. Using Governance and Trade to define a two-dimensional socio-economic space in which the position of a country captures its capacity to address issues of biological invasions, we identified four main clusters of countries in 2015. Most countries had an increase in Trade over the past 25 years, but trajectories were more geographically heterogeneous for Governance. Declines in levels of Governance are concerning as they may be responsible for larger levels of invasions in the future. By identifying the factors influencing EAS richness and the regions most susceptible to changes in these factors, our results provide novel insights to integrate biological invasions into scenarios of biodiversity change to better inform decision-making for policy and the management of biological invasions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01166-3.

Protection against autoimmunity is driven by thymic epithelial cell-mediated regulation of Treg development.

Medullary thymic epithelial cells (mTECs) are key antigen-presenting cells mediating T cell tolerance to prevent harmful autoimmunity. mTECs both negatively select self-reactive T cells and promote the development of thymic regulatory T cells (tTregs) that mediate peripheral tolerance. The relative importance of these two mechanisms of thymic education to prevent autoimmunity is unclear. We generated a mouse model to specifically target the development and function of mTECs by conditional ablation of the NF-κB­inducing kinase (NIK) in the TEC compartment. In contrast to germline-deficient NIK−/− mice, Foxn1CreNIKfl/fl mice rapidly developed fatal T cell­dependent multiorgan autoimmunity shortly after birth. Thymic transplantation and adoptive transfer experiments demonstrated that autoimmunity arises specifically from the emergence of dysfunctional tTregs. Thus, Treg function, rather than negative selection, enforces the protection of peripheral tissues from autoimmune attack.

The International Vertebrate Pet Trade Network and Insights from US Imports of Exotic Pets.

The international trade in exotic vertebrate pets provides key social and economic benefits but also drives associated ecological, ethical, and human health impacts. However, despite its clear importance, we currently lack a full understanding of the structure of the pet trade, hampering efforts to optimize its benefits while mitigating its negative effects. In the present article, we represent and review the structure of the pet trade as a network composed of different market actors (nodes) and trade flows (links). We identify key data gaps in this network that, if filled, would enable network analyses to pinpoint targets for management. As a case study of how data-informed networks can realize this goal, we quantified spatial and temporal patterns in pets imported to the United States. Our framework and case study illustrate how network approaches can help to inform and manage the effects of the growing demand for exotic pets.

Seasonal upwelling reduces herbivore control of tropical rocky intertidal algal communities.

Communities are shaped by a variety of ecological and environmental processes, each acting at different spatial scales. Seminal research on rocky shores highlighted the effects of consumers as local determinants of primary productivity and community assembly. However, it is now clear that the species interactions shaping communities at local scales are themselves regulated by large-scale oceanographic processes that generate regional variation in resource availability. Upwelling events deliver nutrient-rich water to coastal ecosystems, influencing primary productivity and algae-herbivore interactions. Despite the potential for upwelling to alter top-down control by herbivores, we know relatively little about the coupling between oceanographic processes and herbivory on tropical rocky shores, where herbivore effects on producers are considered to be strong and nutrient levels are considered to be limiting. By replicating seasonal molluscan herbivore exclusion experiments across three regions exposed to varying intensity of seasonal upwelling, separated by hundreds of kilometers along Panama's Pacific coast, we examine large-scale environmental determinants of consumer effects and community structure on tropical rocky shores. At sites experiencing seasonal upwelling, grazers strongly limited macroalgal cover when upwelling was absent, leading to dominance by crustose algae. As nutrients increased and surface water cooled during upwelling events, increases in primary productivity temporarily weakened herbivory, allowing foliose, turf and filamentous algae to replace crusts. Meanwhile, grazer effects were persistently strong at sites without seasonal upwelling. Our results confirm that herbivores are key determinants of tropical algal cover, and that the mollusk grazing guild can control initial stages of macroalgal succession. However, our focus on regional oceanographic conditions revealed that bottom-up processes regulate top-down control on tropical shorelines. This study expands on the extensive body of work highlighting the influence of upwelling on local ecological processes by demonstrating that nutrient subsidies delivered by upwelling events can weaken herbivory in tropical rocky shores.

When You Can't R.I.O.T., R.I.O.: Tele-assessment for School Psychologists.

The acronym R.I.O.T., record review, interview, observation, and test, is a well-known tool for conceptualizing a comprehensive assessment. With COVID-19 and the need to provide school psychological services virtually, it is important to reconsider R.I.O.T. in light of the limitations of virtual assessment. We describe the limitations of virtual assessment and argue that in spite of these barriers, the first three elements of R.I.O.T., record review, interviews, and observations, when used systematically, can provide useful comprehensive assessment data. Specific recommendations are provided for implementing assessment virtually.

Clustered versus catastrophic global vertebrate declines.

Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index2). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic-geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts.

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.